Cascade-based attack vulnerability on the US power grid
Authors: Jian-Wei Wang and Li-Li Rong
Safety Science, Vol. 47, No. 10. (16 December 2009), pp. 1332-1336
The vulnerability of real-life networks subject to intentional attacks has been one of the outstanding challenges in the study of the network safety. Applying the real data of the US power grid, we compare the effects of two different attacks for the network robustness against cascading failures, i.e., removal by either the descending or ascending orders of the loads. In one case, our investigation by the numerical simulations leads to a counterintuitive finding on the US power grid that the attack on the nodes with the lowest loads is more harmful than the attack on the ones with the highest loads. In addition, the almost same effect of two attacks may be useful in furthering studies on the control and defense of cascading failures in the US power grid.
The Peoples Liberation Army and China in Transition Stephen J. Flanagan and Michael E. Marti, Center for the Study of Chineses Military Affairs, National Defense University
Preemptive Strikes Crucial in Limited High-Tech Wars. Lu Linzhi
Unrestricted Warfare. Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui
Safety Science, Vol. 47, No. 10. (16 December 2009), pp. 1332-1336
The vulnerability of real-life networks subject to intentional attacks has been one of the outstanding challenges in the study of the network safety. Applying the real data of the US power grid, we compare the effects of two different attacks for the network robustness against cascading failures, i.e., removal by either the descending or ascending orders of the loads. In one case, our investigation by the numerical simulations leads to a counterintuitive finding on the US power grid that the attack on the nodes with the lowest loads is more harmful than the attack on the ones with the highest loads. In addition, the almost same effect of two attacks may be useful in furthering studies on the control and defense of cascading failures in the US power grid.
The Peoples Liberation Army and China in Transition Stephen J. Flanagan and Michael E. Marti, Center for the Study of Chineses Military Affairs, National Defense University
Preemptive Strikes Crucial in Limited High-Tech Wars. Lu Linzhi
Unrestricted Warfare. Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui
Company Intelligence Support Teams by Rod Morgan
The mission of the company intel cell is to describe the effects of the weather, enemy, terrain, and local population upon friendly operations in order to reduce the commander’s uncertainty
and aid in his decision making. - Headquarters, Department of the Navy, U.S. Marine Corps X-File 2-1.1, Company Intelligence Cell in Stability and Support Operations (SASO), GPO, Washington, DC, 17 December 2004.
Overwatch Tactical Operations Company Intelligence Support Team (CoIST) software suite: It is generally accepted that while conducting counterinsurgency (COIN) operations killing the enemy is relatively easy; however, finding him is much more difficult. In fact, finding the enemy is rapidly becoming a process of think-to-contact versus actual movement-to-contact to develop the timely (actionable) intelligence traditionally lacking at the lowest tactical levels. Even more difficult is not creating more insurgents than you kill or capture. Full spectrum operations, both lethal and non-lethal, are the key to successful COIN operations. Such operations rely on accurate, timely information derived from the bottom up through patrol debriefings, sensitive site exploitation, tactical questioning, tips, and other sources, analyzed and exploited at the lowest level.
National Intelligence Support Teams
JP 2-01 Joint and National Intelligence Support to Military Operations
and aid in his decision making. - Headquarters, Department of the Navy, U.S. Marine Corps X-File 2-1.1, Company Intelligence Cell in Stability and Support Operations (SASO), GPO, Washington, DC, 17 December 2004.
Overwatch Tactical Operations Company Intelligence Support Team (CoIST) software suite: It is generally accepted that while conducting counterinsurgency (COIN) operations killing the enemy is relatively easy; however, finding him is much more difficult. In fact, finding the enemy is rapidly becoming a process of think-to-contact versus actual movement-to-contact to develop the timely (actionable) intelligence traditionally lacking at the lowest tactical levels. Even more difficult is not creating more insurgents than you kill or capture. Full spectrum operations, both lethal and non-lethal, are the key to successful COIN operations. Such operations rely on accurate, timely information derived from the bottom up through patrol debriefings, sensitive site exploitation, tactical questioning, tips, and other sources, analyzed and exploited at the lowest level.
National Intelligence Support Teams
JP 2-01 Joint and National Intelligence Support to Military Operations
Introduction to Social Networks by Robert A. Hanneman and Mark Riddle
This on-line textbook introduces many of the basics of formal approaches to the analysis of social networks. The text relies heavily on the work of Freeman, Borgatti, and Everett (the authors of the UCINET software package). The materials here, and their organization, were also very strongly influenced by the text of Wasserman and Faust, and by a graduate seminar conducted by Professor Phillip Bonacich at UCLA.
UCINET
UCINET Reference Manual
UCINET Users Guide
ANTHROPAC
Analytic Technologies Software
UCINET
UCINET Reference Manual
UCINET Users Guide
ANTHROPAC
Analytic Technologies Software
The Content Analysis Guidebook by Kimberly A. Neuendorf
Content analysis is an indepth analysis using quantitative or qualitative techniques of messages using a scientific method (including attention to objectivity-intersubjectivity, a priori design, reliability, validity, generalizability, replicability, and hypothesis testing) and is not limited as to the types of variables that may be measured or the context in which the messages are created or presented.The Sensemaking Process and Leverage Points for Analyst Technology by Peter Pirolli and Stuart Card
Abstract: There are a relatively few open literature reports that provide empirical descriptive studies of intelligence analysis and that link these into the context of expertise and work. This paper, based on first results from a cognitive task analysis and verbal protocols give a broad brush description of intelligence analysis as an example of sensemaking. It then suggests some possible leverage points where technology might be applied.
Making Sense of Massive Data by Hypothesis Testing by Dr. John W. Bodnar
Tutorial
Target Audience: This tutorial is intended for researchers, program managers, and tool builders who want to understand how the end of the Cold War has led to new requirements for intelligence analysis and how those requirements are driving new methodologies and tools for analysis. The tutorial will be useful to analysts interested in rethinking how they do analysis and adding some new analytical methods to their toolbox.
Abstract:
QUESTION: How can we rethink our assumptions on intelligence to redefine methodologies to provide strategic warning in an age of WMD and terrorist threat?
HYPOTHESIS: The changing tempo of WMD and terrorist threats has virtually destroyed the ability to provide tactical or strategic warning. New methodologies for warning intelligence need to be developed based on quantum thinking rather than Newtonian thinking.
MODELS: Toward Information Age Intelligence
(1) Modeling the Decision Cycle. Dynamic models for biological systems including organizations can be built using the Decision Cycle developed by COL John Boyd.
(2) Modeling the Target. A methodology for Multidimensional Analysis (MDA) will be presented to model the target that accounts for strategic planning and the need for a two decision cycle planning process to build WMD or CBRNE.
(3) Modeling How We Model. A model for how we think - build and test hypotheses - to provide strategic warning is presented so that we can develop tools to help automate the process and develop training methods for new analysts.
(4) Modeling Ourselves. Recommendations to "reorient the arrows" within the Intelligence Community - both the information flow and leadership interactions - are provided to indicate how the IC can re-think its analytical infrastructure to empower the analyst.
Bio: Dr. John Bodnar is a senior biological warfare analyst at SAIC, McLean, VA. His interest in analytical methods and tools for the IC comes from previous experience conducting biological warfare analysis at the Defense Intelligence Agency, analyzing the Revolution in Military Affairs as a Navy Reservist for the Office of Naval Research and the US Naval War College, and researching and teaching bioinformatics at Northeastern University, the US Naval Academy, and Villa Julie College.
REFERENCE: John W. Bodnar. Warning Analysis for the Information Age: Rethinking the Intelligence Process. Joint Military Intelligence College, Washington, DC (Dec 2003). Available along with classified case studies on state BW programs and terrorist CBRNE programs on Joint Military Intelligence College (JMIC) Intelink site.
Target Audience: This tutorial is intended for researchers, program managers, and tool builders who want to understand how the end of the Cold War has led to new requirements for intelligence analysis and how those requirements are driving new methodologies and tools for analysis. The tutorial will be useful to analysts interested in rethinking how they do analysis and adding some new analytical methods to their toolbox.
Abstract:
QUESTION: How can we rethink our assumptions on intelligence to redefine methodologies to provide strategic warning in an age of WMD and terrorist threat?
HYPOTHESIS: The changing tempo of WMD and terrorist threats has virtually destroyed the ability to provide tactical or strategic warning. New methodologies for warning intelligence need to be developed based on quantum thinking rather than Newtonian thinking.
MODELS: Toward Information Age Intelligence
(1) Modeling the Decision Cycle. Dynamic models for biological systems including organizations can be built using the Decision Cycle developed by COL John Boyd.
(2) Modeling the Target. A methodology for Multidimensional Analysis (MDA) will be presented to model the target that accounts for strategic planning and the need for a two decision cycle planning process to build WMD or CBRNE.
(3) Modeling How We Model. A model for how we think - build and test hypotheses - to provide strategic warning is presented so that we can develop tools to help automate the process and develop training methods for new analysts.
(4) Modeling Ourselves. Recommendations to "reorient the arrows" within the Intelligence Community - both the information flow and leadership interactions - are provided to indicate how the IC can re-think its analytical infrastructure to empower the analyst.
Bio: Dr. John Bodnar is a senior biological warfare analyst at SAIC, McLean, VA. His interest in analytical methods and tools for the IC comes from previous experience conducting biological warfare analysis at the Defense Intelligence Agency, analyzing the Revolution in Military Affairs as a Navy Reservist for the Office of Naval Research and the US Naval War College, and researching and teaching bioinformatics at Northeastern University, the US Naval Academy, and Villa Julie College.
REFERENCE: John W. Bodnar. Warning Analysis for the Information Age: Rethinking the Intelligence Process. Joint Military Intelligence College, Washington, DC (Dec 2003). Available along with classified case studies on state BW programs and terrorist CBRNE programs on Joint Military Intelligence College (JMIC) Intelink site.
Top 25 Events in the Cyberworld
The Evolution of Cyberwarfare by Greg Bruno, Council on Foreign Relations.
Thanks to Luis Oliveira R. for this Discussion on NSA Information Assurance
Thanks to Luis Oliveira R. for this Discussion on NSA Information Assurance
09-37: Small Unit Operations in Afghanistan Handbook by Brice Johnson
This handbook will assist Soldiers and small-unit leaders in preparing for the difficulties and challenges they will face when deployed to Afghanistan as part of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF). The handbook specifically addresses the unique geographic and cultural aspects small units can expect to encounter in the Afghan theater of operations. While current U.S. formations have been successfully conducting counterinsurgency operations in Iraq, the infrastructure, terrain, culture, and enemy are very different in OEF. Operations in many parts of the Afghan theater are still heavily weighted in favor of direct lethal engagements against a hardened and determined enemy force.
The average enemy fighter in Afghanistan has been fighting continuously for the last 30 years. As a nation, the people of Afghanistan have been fighting for thousands of years. It should come as no surprise that the enemy has developed very effective tactics, techniques, and procedures to combat a technologically superior enemy that relies heavily on vehicles for transport and supply. This enemy has repeatedly demonstrated an advanced understanding of U.S. tactics and will exploit any mistake with catastrophic results.
Key concepts covered in this publication include:
The average enemy fighter in Afghanistan has been fighting continuously for the last 30 years. As a nation, the people of Afghanistan have been fighting for thousands of years. It should come as no surprise that the enemy has developed very effective tactics, techniques, and procedures to combat a technologically superior enemy that relies heavily on vehicles for transport and supply. This enemy has repeatedly demonstrated an advanced understanding of U.S. tactics and will exploit any mistake with catastrophic results.
Key concepts covered in this publication include:
- Command and control
- Soldier stamina and fitness
- Marksmanship
- Medical and casualty evacuation
- Mounted and dismounted battle drills
- Protection
- Interpreters
The Analysts's Cookbook by Kristan Wheaton
This book is a 164-page compilation of 16 analytic methods applicable to a variety of intelligence analysis taskings."We have divided this book into chapters and sections. You can think of each chapter as a recipe, if you wish. Like any practical cookbook, this one has an informal structure to make it easier for the reader to use. Each chapter begins with a brief description of the analytic technique, the strengths and weaknesses of the technique, and an abbreviated how-to section.
Finally, each analyst describes how they applied their chosen technique to a real world problem. Some of those applications are traditional, such as using computer analysis on a business problem, others are less so, such as applying SWOT to a sorority. We don't claim to have the best recipe for apple pie or Trend analysis; just one that you might want to try."
Interrogation: World War II, Vietnam and Iraq
National Defense Intelligence CollegeThis book presents the work of three NDIC graduate students. All three worked under Professor John A. Wahlquist of the College, with external guidance from a group of scholars and recognized subject matter experts under the leadership of Dr. Robert A. Fein of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The book follows the NDIC Press’s Educing Information – Interrogation: Science and Art, Foundations for the Future. By adding historical and practical context going back to U.S. policy and practice in interrogations during World War II, the Vietnam conflict, and the ongoing war in Iraq, this newest volume contributes to the high-profi le public dialogue on how U.S. military and civilian agencies can best obtain information from prisoners of war and other categories of legal and illegal combatants without compromising the principles upon which the
nation was founded.
nation was founded.
The Dynamics of Terrorist Networks: Understanding the Survival Mechanisms of Global Salafi Jihad
Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management
Authors: Jie Xu, Daning Hu, Hsinchun Chen
Today terrorists usually work in network forms to conduct attacks. Terrorist networks remain active and can still function even after being severely damaged by authorities. Analyzing terrorist networks from a dynamic point of view can provide insights about the mechanisms responsible for the survival of terrorist organizations. This paper studies the dynamics of a major international terrorist organization over a 14-year period – the Global Salafi Jihad (GSJ) terrorist network. We found that a scale-free topology gradually emerged as new members joined the GSJ network based on operational needs. In addition, since the network has been experiencing member losses while it grows, we also studied the robustness of the GSJ network. We used a simulation approach to examine its vulnerability to random failures, targeted attacks, and real world authorities' counterattacks. We found that authorities' counterattacks have been rather ineffective in disrupting the terrorist network.
Authors: Jie Xu, Daning Hu, Hsinchun Chen
Today terrorists usually work in network forms to conduct attacks. Terrorist networks remain active and can still function even after being severely damaged by authorities. Analyzing terrorist networks from a dynamic point of view can provide insights about the mechanisms responsible for the survival of terrorist organizations. This paper studies the dynamics of a major international terrorist organization over a 14-year period – the Global Salafi Jihad (GSJ) terrorist network. We found that a scale-free topology gradually emerged as new members joined the GSJ network based on operational needs. In addition, since the network has been experiencing member losses while it grows, we also studied the robustness of the GSJ network. We used a simulation approach to examine its vulnerability to random failures, targeted attacks, and real world authorities' counterattacks. We found that authorities' counterattacks have been rather ineffective in disrupting the terrorist network.
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