Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning by Cynthia M Grabo

Grabo (a former intelligence analyst with the U.S. Government) originally wrote A Handbook of Warning Intelligence, first published in the early 1970s as a classified document, for the purpose of training intelligence analysts during the Cold War. That 800-page, three volume manual has here been condensed to provide a description of the "indications methodology" of analysis, said to have correctly forecast the North Korean attack on South Korea in 1950 and the subsequent Chinese intervention. Grabo describes the assessment and measurement of military and political indicators of warning, factors of surprise and deception, and connections between analysis and policy.