The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World by Peter Schwartz

You can tell you have good scenarios when they are both plausible and surprising; when they have the power to break old stereotypes; and when the makers assume ownership of them and put them to work. Scenario making is intensely participatory, or it fails.

Inevitable Suprises, Presentation at Rethinking the Future Nature of Competition & Conflict Seminar, March 8, 2006