This book deals with how managers can set out and negotiate a successful course into the future for an organization in the face of significant uncertainty. Uncertainties about the future are often felt to be uncomfortable and thus “swept under the table” by collapsing them into a single-line forecast. This is tantamount to abdication of managerial responsibility. Facing up to uncertainty changes the perspective on the future completely. The secret of success moves from “finding the best strategy” to “finding the best process.” Thinking about scenarios – the different plausible future environments that can be imagined – is the key to thinking the process through and to keep thinking about it as the plans for the future unfold. Scenarios deals first with the principles of organizational learning and then moves on to describe practical and down-to-earth ways in which the organization can develop its skill in conducting an ongoing scenario-based strategy process. The methods described are based on many years of experience of managers in both large and small organizations, and they are grounded in solid logic.
This second edition features brand-new material throughout, and places increased emphasis on the essential link between organizational success and unique insights and original ideas. In addition, the entire text has been rewritten to bring it up to date and make it more practical, while retaining its underlying rigor.