Using Prediction Markets to Enhance US Intelligence Capabilities by Puong Fei Yeh

In 2001, the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) started experimenting with methods for applying market-based concepts to intelligence. One such project, DARPA’s Future Markets Applied to Prediction (FutureMAP) program tested whether prediction markets, markets in which people bet on the likelihood of future events, could be used to improve upon existing approaches to preparing strategic intelligence.

The Policy Analysis Market (and FutureMAP) Archive by Robin Hanson
Congressional Record: July 29, 2003 (Senate)